11 May 2012

[Headline: China vs Philippines - showdown or no show?]

Q: This tarot reading is about the outlook for peace over the next 9-12 months in the South China Sea region, especially with regard to China & Philippines.

This tarot reading is not so much concerned about the legality of the issue as to whether there will be armed conflict in the region.

Currently both China and Philippines are locked into their positions with neither side willing to give in.

Efforts will be made by third parties to broker a truce and resume cooperation. This might work for a while but it is likely that some careless action or statements will again disturb the balance.

The situation in the region is tense and will continue to be tense for the next 9-12 months also. However, it is highly unlikely to escalate into full-fledged military action or war in this period. 

Understanding the role of some countries in this situation:

CHINA: Will continue to stick to their stance. They will not be willing to see the other's point of view.

PHILIPPINES: They are agitated currently. Later they would like to work it out but would be confused about how to do it.

USA: They will try to find innovative ways to defuse the situation because they want a good relationship with all countries, and they are working towards improving relations with China.

TAIWAN: Not involved in this standoff, but have an interest in what happens. They might spring a surprise.

INDIA: Will work to try and improve the situation.  

(Note: The tarot reading will be repeated if more players become active or assertive in the South China Sea dispute, to account for their energy involvement)

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