31 May 2012

[Headline: Syria. Who Will Fire the First Shot?]

Q: What is the underlying thought process of the main players in the Syrian situation and what are they likely to do? 


It seems that the Syrian regime is thinking of listening to their well-wishers. They know that their current actions may turn out to be self-destructive to their preferred way of life. They are not pleased about the international pressure. They want and plan to hold on to power as long as possible. 

It is likely they may agree to some extent to the UN plan, but not completely. They will try buy some temporary peace and stability, and stop the bloodshed. After a while, they may go back to their old ways, making choices that serve their self-interest, and not anyone else's.

Essentially, Syria would make only superficial gestures. The core attitude remains unchanged.

No war.

USA & Allies:

They feel it is not the right time to engage in a conflict. At the moment no one can afford to enter into war. They are thinking of their own priorities at home, especially the economy, and their citizens too would not approve of this wastage.

The decision has been taken not to do anything. Apart from timing, they also think they are unprepared and are not confident they will be able to pull if off. But they actually can succeed. They are not inclined to take unnecessary risks at this point in time.

The collective wisdom is against military action. There is no support for it. Instead, they will prefer to work through the UN.  The attitude is to wait & watch, and hope that all will be fine.

No war.

Russia & Other Syrian Sympathisers:

The main players are getting quite frustrated with the situation. Whatever they are trying to communicate about solving the problem, is not getting through.

They want to continue their past relationship with Syria, but also do not want to jeopardise relations with nations on the other side.

Right now they are unsure /confused about the course of action. They would like to assess the situation before taking any action. Whatever it is, they will follow the law. They want to do the right thing, but also will use this opportunity to re-establish their power & influence in the world.

They are likely to find a way out of this, and bring the situation under control. It seems they will pressurise Syria to accept the UN offer.

No war.

Overall scenario: USA & allies will hold back and hope for UN to succeed. Russia & others are confused but will bring balance in the right way. Syria will buy peace with temporary abstinence from bloodshed. It does not appear that there will be a military conflict in the near future.

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